### **Deep Analysis of the Christmas Tree Jumper** #### **Summary, Release Date, Rarity** The Christmas Tree Jumper is a festive cosmetic item first introduced during the 2014 Christmas event as part of a Treasure Hunter promotion. Over the years, it has become a sought-after collectible, given its limited availability and strong association with holiday nostalgia. Unlike tradable discontinued rares like partyhats, the Christmas Tree Jumper has occasionally returned via Treasure Hunter or promotional events, significantly affecting its rarity and price volatility. While it’s not as rare as true discontinued rares, the Christmas Tree Jumper occupies a niche space, attracting players who collect holiday-themed items. Its accessibility has waxed and waned over time, with past re-releases like in 2022 through the expanded token system deflating prices temporarily. --- #### **Price Analysis & Historical Trends** The price data showcases highly volatile performance, driven by event timing, economic disruptions (like gold dupes), and re-releases. Key trends include: - **2021 (Highs of 45M)**: After years of stability, the item surged due to nostalgia-fueled buyer interest compounded by a gold-heavy economy following the rollback and token dupes in January and July 2021. This surge was capped by May 2021 bond price increases, shifting attention to MTX-related purchases, which caused a gradual dip. - **2022 (Rapid Decline)**: The removal of the Duel Arena in January 2022 and the introduction of Fresh Start Worlds in September 2022 caused major economic turbulence. Players focused on accumulating wealth in Fresh Start Worlds rather than legacy items, leading to a steep price drop to under 7M by May 2022. - **2023 (Near Bottom Trend of 10k)**: Hypersupply from Treasure Hunter re-releases and economic instability from the scrimshaw dupe, max combat changes, and the Hero Pass backlash tanked demand. Players hoarded cash or invested in more liquid high-tier gear during PvM meta reworks. - **2024 March Spike (50k)**: With a combat update in March and 1B GP being added to Treasure Hunter rewards in April, interest in collectible items briefly spiked as reinflation hit secondary markets. However, a catastrophic dupe in May is projected to suppress sustained growth in cosmetic prices for several months. --- #### **Price Prediction** Based on historical fluctuation cycles and current economic factors: 1. **Short Term (next 3 months)**: - After the May 2024 max cash-related GP injection, prices are likely to stabilize around **30-40k** as players regain confidence in the market. 2. **Medium Term (6-9 months)**: - As RuneScape enters seasonal downtime (summer), demand for cosmetic items typically falls. Expect a modest dip to **25k-35k** unless Jagex restricts availability or introduces anti-GP inflation measures. 3. **Long Term (+12 months)**: - Provided Jagex does not reintroduce the item via Treasure Hunter or token store promotions, the Christmas Tree Jumper could climb back into the **75k-100k range** as wealth redistribution expands across the economy. --- #### **Causes of Price Spikes/Dips** - **Spikes**: Post-update reinflation (combat updates, new PvM metas, or seasonal buyer interest before Christmas). - **Dips**: Treasure Hunter re-releases, dupe scandals inflating GP, or meta/seasonal shifts (e.g., late summer or late spring). --- #### **Typical Flipping Margins** The Christmas Tree Jumper has historically been a low-volume trade item. Average flipping margins are fairly small in percentage terms. Typical margins observed: - **During stable months**: Expect ~15-20% profits by trading weekly volatility (e.g., buy at 25k, sell at 30k). - **During spikes**: Margins can widen up to 30-40% due to demand surges, especially if anticipated spikes are correctly timed (e.g., pre-December holiday trader demand). --- #### **Advice on Related Investments** If trading Christmas Tree Jumpers, consider diversifying into similarly themed items or items subject to the same volatility drivers: 1. **Holiday Items**: - **Snowman Ring**: Often overlooked but has consistent Christmas-time upticks. - **Reindeer Antlers**: Seasonal demand mirrors Christmas Tree Jumper. - **Santa Suit**: Affordable and has sharp price recoveries during December events. 2. **Cosmetic Tokens**: - Tokens linked to previous re-releases like chicken and turkey outfit tokens tend to spike during anti-MTX protests or combat downtimes. - Best picked up at rock-bottom prices during summer lulls and sold closer to holiday promotions. 3. **Discontinued Rares (Entry Level)**: - **Disk of Returning**: Tracks with similar trends as Christmas Tree Jumper but with less promotional risk. - **Half-Full Wine Jug**: Historical item with solid long-term growth and lower association with Treasure Hunter promos. --- #### **Seasonal Market Behaviors** - **Positive Price Outcomes**: - Early Winter (November–December): Buyers seek holiday-themed cosmetics, driving prices upward. - Post-major updates (e.g., gear overhauls or combat changes): Cosmetics benefit from reinflation and wealth redistribution. - **Negative Price Outcomes**: - Late Spring to Early Summer (April–June): Lower demand for niche items as PvM and skilling updates dominate player interest. - Post-Treasure Hunter Promotional Releases: If re-released, expect immediate price collapses, with gradual recovery over 6-9 months. --- ### **Conclusion** The Christmas Tree Jumper is a highly volatile item that thrives on seasonal demand, limited availability, and RuneScape’s economic climate. While its price may remain subdued in the short term due to recent economic disruptions, its long-term potential hinges on Jagex avoiding re-releases. For traders, leveraging seasonal shifts and patching into broader wealth trends can yield strong returns.