### **Analysis of the Dragon Slayer Ability Codex** #### **Summary** The Dragon Slayer Ability Codex unlocks the Dragon Slayer combat ability in RuneScape 3, a highly useful threshold for DPS players specializing in dragon-slaying scenarios. First released during the Elder God Wars Dungeon update (late 2021), the codex primarily drops from Kerapac, a Tier 95 boss. Due to its role in PvM for increased DPS against dragons, its demand correlates with both bossing meta trends and supply fluctuations from Kerapac kills. The codex is tradable, allowing investors, PvMers, and merchants to control its market presence. #### **Release Date and Market Characteristics** - **Release Date:** August 2021 (Elder God Wars Dungeon expansion) - **Source:** Kerapac (Hard Mode drops increase the likelihood). - **Rarity:** Moderately rare, though consistent boss kills extend its supply flow. Its rarity also scales inversely with player inefficiencies in killing Kerapac, especially during combat reworks that put player performance into flux (e.g., Necromancy release). Historically, the codex sees large price swings due to patch notes (buffing/debuffing its viability for dragon PvM), overall game population changes, GP inflation events, and boss farm popularity. It generally holds significant economic weight due to its relevance for high-tier PvM. --- ### **Why the Codex Peaks and Falls: Historical Trends** Using the provided price data and historical game events, we can identify patterns behind price oscillations: - **Initial Popularity & Highs (2023-10 to 2023-11)** During this period, the codex reached prices approaching **250m-280m**, fueled by: - **Necromancy Launch (August 2023):** The combat level increase led to renewed PvM interest. - **Bossing Meta Evolution:** Many players farmed Hard Mode Kerapac, spiking supply. However, as the new skill hype faded, PvMers reverted attention to money-efficient metas (e.g., Nex, Raksha), lowering the codex's drop rate supply. - **Red Portal Lure Exploits (November 2023):** People offloading more GP into tradeable assets likely induced temporary codex inflation. - **Dramatic Dips (2024 Events):** Post-November 2023, codex prices saw sharp downward corrections, falling to **~84m by May 2024**: - **Max Cash Exploit (May 2024):** Trillions of GP entered circulation, crushing item liquidity and forcing panic sales. - **Treasure Hunter Inflation (April 2024):** Jagex injecting GP diluted market stability, devaluing high-tier items like the codex. - **Combat Update (March 2024):** Codex could temporarily devalue if newer mechanics made it less critical or viable. --- ### **Price Prediction (Next Few Months)** Based on historical data and anticipated game developments: - **Short-Term (Nov 2024 - Feb 2025):** Expect prices to **stabilize around 95-110m.** The GIM bank dupe (Nov 2024) might temporarily introduce minor devaluation by adding untracked GP and assets. Still, increased supply from boss farms is balanced by stagnant demand until a broader PvM rework incentivizes its use. - **Mid-Term (March 2025 - May 2025):** Prices could drop slightly to **85-90m** unless a patch note buff renews popularity in specific dragon bossing or Jagex removes GP injection initiatives. - **Long-Term:** Without significant content expansions that target dragons or Kerapac mechanics, the codex could settle in the **80-95m range**, mimicking other general-use PvM codices (e.g., Greater Chain). --- ### **Flipping Margins** For merchants, the Dragon Slayer Ability Codex offers predictable flipping strategies: - **Typical Margins:** Margins typically range **2-7m/item**, depending on market activity. For periods of high volatility (e.g., major game updates), margins spike to **10-15m** as players panic-buy or undercut each other. - **Timeframes:** During stable market weeks with predictable demand cycles, aim for **3-4 daily flips** with small investments. For large profit windows, target updates that nerf or buff PvM bosses, when prices shift more dramatically. --- ### **Similar Items to Invest In** If seeking high-value items with similar economics, consider: - **Greater Chain Codex:** Similar PvM utility for AoE metas but responsive to boss farm changes. Used widely in elite PvM setups, it's a safer bet when Dragon Slayer volatility increases. - **Biting 4 Components (Gizmos):** Consistently in demand for high-end perks. - **Fury of the Small Relic Replacement Items:** PvPers and PvMers rely on this for adrenaline optimization. - **Dreadnips (replenishment):** Small-ticket pseudoconsumable tied to boss utility. --- ### **Seasonal Trends** - **Positive Price Growth Seasons:** - **After PvM Buff Patches:** Whenever dragons receive buffs (e.g., Nex/Varago mechanics), this codex skyrockets in relevance. - **Anniversaries (January/July):** More active PvMers fuel demand. - **Negative Trends:** - **Year-End Dupe Exploits (November-December):** Seasonal dupes or TH GP injections slash investor confidence. - **Post-Treasure Hunter Reworks (April-August):** Cash influx dilutes prices. Focus your investments when game updates introduce dragon-centric PvM or if bossing metas shift significantly. Avoid high exposure when global inflation risks (e.g., item dupes, excessive GP release) threaten liquidity. --- ### Final Note Leveraging the Dragon Slayer Codex's predictable behaviors and price oscillations offers lucrative returns, provided you remain mindful of Jagex’s frequent economy-affecting decisions. Cross-trading alongside similar mid-tier PvM items like Greater Concentrated Blast codices and perks amplifies portfolio stability.