### **Gud Raider Axe: Deep Dive Analysis** #### **Summary, Release Date, and Rarity** The **Gud Raider Axe** is a high-tier weapon in RuneScape 3, introduced with the **Necromancy expansion** on **August 7, 2023**, coinciding with the combat level cap increase to 152. It serves as both a niche weapon for **Necromancy-adjacent combat roles** and a collectible for players seeking unique post-release gear. The axe is obtainable via **rare drops in Necromancy-related boss fights** or **tradeable treasure mechanics**, making it a highly sought-after item initially. Its rarity originates primarily from its **drop mechanics**, as it requires engaging with endgame bosses that demand high combat efficiency and a functional understanding of the **Necromancy rework**. Further, the economy fluctuations surrounding its release limited the accessibility for many players, amplifying its scarcity in circulation. #### **Price History and Patterns** Analyzing its price trajectory: 1. **2023-09-29**: Price spiked from 7.3M to 64.4M. - Likely due to its **initial scarcity and hype around the Necromancy rework**. - The **Red Portal bug** on **08/13/2023**, leading to hacked accounts, may have influenced this. With wealth being liquidated by hackers, items like the Gud Raider Axe were temporarily devalued before stabilizing once recovered accounts and trust in market mechanics returned. 2. **2023-03-05**: Brief drop to 35.5M. - The **Hero Pass backlash** earlier in September reduced active player engagement and slowed general gold circulation in the economy, softening demand slightly but not causing a hard crash. 3. **2024-04-22 to 2024-08-16**: Prices surged dramatically from **47.4M to 153M**. - The **Max Cash stack update (05/15/2024)** injected massive liquidity into the market via exploitation. This, combined with the **Mining and Smithing rework (08/12/2024)** that added higher-tier crafting options, made gear like the Gud Raider Axe a prime choice for players upgrading their combat setups. - This surge is arguably **inflated**, as duping and market exploits drove inflation of luxury/God-tier items like this. 4. **Spikes/Dips Context**: - Price spikes are driven by **game updates that expand combat or skilling capabilities** (e.g., Necromancy introduction, Smithing rework). - Dips often correlate to **duplication exploits** (causing massive GP injection and devaluation of gold). #### **Price Prediction** Based on these patterns: - **Short Term (2-3 months)**: Price correction post-August is highly likely due to recent inflated values. Expect it to drop to **90-110M** as the market stabilizes from the extreme 153M highs. The reintroduction of hacked/stolen goods post-GIM bank bug (11/01/2024) or other **gold injection trends** could trigger further fluctuations. - **Mid-Term (6-9 months)**: If no further duplicates occur and Necromancy elicits consistent expansion/content updates, the axe may stabilize at **125-130M**, as it retains its status as an optimal combat item. - Long-term volatility is tied to **future combat updates** and potential re-releases. #### **Typical Flipping Margins** The Gud Raider Axe has a wide **margin on Grand Exchange flipping** given its historically high price leaps: - Average Flipping Margin: **4M - 10M per flip** if monitoring short-term supply gaps. - Optimal flipping occurs during **content update teasers** (as demand spikes) or after major **exploit bans** (when accounts are liquidated en masse). #### **Correlated Investment Opportunities** For diversifying item investments: 1. **Corrupted Repriser (Necromancy)**: Complements the Raider Axe in setups and has similar market trends during Necromancy updates. 2. **Tier-95 Equipment like the Fractured Staff of Armadyl**: While on the pricier side, such staples tend to rise proportionally during high-end combat changes due to their evergreen utility. 3. **Black Partyhat (Released 12/01/2023)**: Rares respond similarly to economic inflationary spikes, making them safe stores of value during GP exploits. #### **Seasonal Impact on Price Trends** - **Positive Price Margins**: - Post-update content cycles (e.g., combat reworks, new skill expansions). - Holiday events where Treasure Hunter rewards align with high-tier item markets. - **Negative Price Margins**: - Post-duplication exploit bans (e.g., Max Cash exploit, dupe recovery efforts). - Early spring typically sees fewer updates, resulting in stagnated high-end market activity. ### **Final Takeaway** While the Gud Raider Axe is currently overinflated due to exploits and reworks, it has long-term investment viability with peak short-term profit opportunities during corrections or subsequent expansions in the Necromancy skill.