### Summary & Background of the Greater Sonic Wave Ability Codex The **Greater Sonic Wave ability codex** is a highly sought-after Magic ability upgrade for the ability *Sonic Wave* in RuneScape 3. It enhances the base ability, making it critical for competitive DPS setups in both PvM and PvP environments. Introduced on **April 11th, 2023** as part of the **Necromancy expansion preparation**, it was initially a rare drop from advanced PvM bosses, specifically designed to capitalize on the demand for high-tier magic abilities among endgame players. Its rarity and effectiveness in rotation with other upgraded abilities sealed its early success in the trading market. --- ### Price Analysis: Key Trends and Catalysts #### **Historical Trends** Looking at the price trend: 1. **April 2023 Release:** Upon release, the codex hit an astounding **490M GP (April 11, 2023)**. This initial price spike reflects the explosiveness of new, meta-changing content. 2. **Rapid Mid-2023 Decline:** Prices plummeted by **70-80% over a few weeks**, stabilizing between **64M and 95M GP** by late April 2023. The declining price correlated with an influx of supply as more PvM drops were farmed, alongside gold instability caused by the Necromancy update and increased hacking incidents. 3. **Q3-Q4 2023 Adjustments:** By **August 2023**, when the **max combat level** increased to 152, Magic-based strategies saw renewed usage. The codex rebounded briefly past **150M GP in September 2023**, coinciding with PvM focus due to **Hero Pass controversies unintentionally amplifying Elite Dungeon grind interest**. 4. **Late-2023 to 2024 Declines:** After a short-lived spike to **25M GP** in **August 2023**, the price nosedived to **~6-8M average by late November**, connected to GP inflation from dupes, **Hero Pass backlash**, and diminishing meta dependency as other abilities became comparable. 5. **2024: Further Dips:** Following the **March 2024 combat update**, the codex weakened further, hitting **2.98M GP as of October 19, 2024.** Players shifted focus to newer content like **Sanctum of Rebirth** and **Necromancy optimization**, sidelining this upgrade. --- #### **Interesting Insights That Stand Out:** 1. **Crowding Out by New Abilities:** The "power creep" problem is evident here, as consistent ability codex releases (especially Necromancy-related ones) have diluted this codex's initial exclusivity. 2. **Gold Inflation Sensitivity:** Price volatility heavily coincided with RuneScape's gold economy manipulation (e.g., dupe scandals, Treasure Hunter GP inflations). The low price barriers suggest this codex is highly reactive to market changes. 3. **Endgame Meta Shifts:** PvM-based items in Magic tend to suffer when hybrid and Necromancy modes outperform Magic setups. The shift from ability-based content to more strict Necromancy builds post-August 2023 was particularly damaging to its staying power. 4. **Trade Behavior Size:** Until the low **6M price range**, this codex was treated as a PvMer-exclusive economy item, representing a skewed supply:demand ratio. Lower prices widened the flipping and accessibility appeal for casual traders. --- ### Price Predictions (November 2024 - Q1 2025) Assuming no immediate meta overhauls or re-releases: - **Short Term Price (November 2024 - January 2025):** The codex is likely to **hover between 2M and 4M GP**, as supply saturates from minimal PvM effort and existing Magic-based setups decline in value. - **Mid-Term Outlook (February - March 2025):** Potential rebounding around **5-8M GP** as PvM utility stabilizes after economic regulation, with the item becoming a budget-friendly PvM training tool for mid-tier accounts. - **External Risks:** Any **future PvM update** emphasizing Magic or PvP content could cause a **10-15M GP spike**, but downgrades to *Greater Sonic Wave's* meta viability will keep high-end adoption subdued unless retrofitted for advanced builds. --- ### Flipping Margins (Current and Near Future) At **current GP prices (~3M GP)**: - Typical buy/sell flipping margins range between **200k to 500k GP per flip**, with larger **1M opportunities** appearing during thin supply pockets. - **Daily market activity:** Best margins are in off-peak hours (4-7 AM UTC), with less crowded competition adjusting buy/sell spread manipulation. - **High-volume trading areas:** Consistent margins are observed in live and GE instant trades. --- ### Related Items for Investment 1. **Greater Chain Ability Codex (Magic Ability)**: Despite higher demand than Sonic Wave, Greater Chain experiences similar market cycles—with price ranges linked to PvP changes. Historically peaks during skill patches. 2. **Fractured Staff of Armadyl Components:** Augmented abilities tied directly to Magic DPS rotations. 3. **Animate Dead Ability Codex (for tank setups):** More constant pricing than Sonic Wave but experiences seasonal spikes near **combat refresh patches**. --- ### Seasonal Trends Impacting Prices 1. **Positive Price Seasonal Cycles:** - **Post-Hero Pass/patch updates:** Price spikes occur following any Magic emphasis changes. - Early-year GP regulation periods (e.g., January to March). 2. **Negative Price Cycles:** - **Holiday Events (December):** More Treasure Hunter keys in rotations often destabilize rare codices' markets. - **Necromancy PvM Expansion Updates (typically mid-year):** Diminishes older abilities tied to the Magic hierarchy by emphasizing newer builds. --- ### Conclusion: Buy or Wait? Currently, **Greater Sonic Wave Codex** is in a heavily devalued state, making it a low-risk **long-term hold** for flipping or speculative PvM/UIM builds. For investors aiming for profits, consider pairing purchases with other similar codices (Chain, Animate Dead) during **Treasure Hunter-driven lows** for maximum appreciation when the meta shifts.