### Deep Analysis of Azure Swiftness Cosmetic Ability Scroll #### **Overview** The Azure Swiftness cosmetic ability scroll is a rare and desirable cosmetic item introduced as part of Treasure Hunter or limited-time promotions. It transforms the graphical effects of the popular *Swiftness* ability, enhancing its aesthetic appeal with an azure-themed animation. Items of this nature, while purely cosmetic, attract collectors and high-level players who value customization. The item was initially released during a surge of cosmetic ability scrolls promoting player individuality. Its rarity derives from limited availability during its release period and its lack of substantial re-releases, making it an attractive speculative investment for merchants. --- #### **Release Date and Rarity** - **Release:** Mid-to-Late 2023 (likely around event-driven Treasure Hunter promotions). - **Rarity:** Extremely rare, especially after Treasure Hunter events concluded. Its rarity intensified as newer cosmetic scrolls were minted, drawing focus away from Azure Swiftness. While the in-game player-driven economy has introduced fluctuating prices, this item has retained value due to its exclusivity and the high GP wealth concentrated among top-end collectors. --- #### **Price Trends and Historical Spike/Dip Analysis** The charted price data tells a *rich story* of market reactions to Jagex updates, gold inflation, and speculation: 1. **Initial Peak (April 2023; ~1B GP):** Released during a period of relative market calm, the scroll capitalized on the post-*Necromancy hype*. Many players sought fresh cosmetics to pair with combat updates, driving demand, while supply was constrained by limited Treasure Hunter availability. 2. **Sharp Downtrend (Post-June 2023):** By mid-2023, items like the Azure Swiftness experienced sell-offs due to the effects of the *Red Portal bug* and *partyhat lures*, which siphoned wealth and destabilized high-value items. The comparison between the scroll price (*~750M GP*) in June and later (~53M GP by March 2024) reflects a broader trend of GP oversaturation (e.g., *duplications*, *freshly-generated wealth*, and lowered barriers to entry for high-value items). 3. **Rebound (March 2024 to July 2024):** A secondary surge followed the *Max Cash bug exploitation* and another significant influx of GP into the economy (Jagex's Treasure Hunter incentivization in April 2024). Prices nearly doubled from *40M GP* to *95M GP*, reflecting speculative buys and renewed wealth circulation after the *Sanctum of Rebirth's* combat popularity. #### **Future Price Prediction** Examining historical trends in relation to economic events, the Azure Swiftness scroll is poised for modest gains **over the next 3-6 months.** The scroll's value will likely rise due to: 1. The *Mining and Smithing rework (August 2024)* fostering play among economically-active high-end players. 2. Market expectation for another potential *Treasure Hunter promotion re-release*, which could temporarily suppress prices but rekindle speculative interest. **Projected GP Price Trajectory (2024):** - **Short-term (0-3 months):** 100M-125M GP. Wealthy merchants speculating on updates will drive incremental growth. - **Medium-term (3-6 months):** 120M-145M GP if demand for blue-themed cosmetics rises. *Minor bumps* (85-95M GP) could occur if new comparable cosmetics dominate Jagex’s Treasure Hunter offerings. **Risks to Consider:** - A mass re-release or Treasure Hunter dilutions of older scrolls may flatten prices. - Overshadowing from new meta-themed combat cosmetics (e.g., Necromancy-related) could sideline Azure Swiftness. --- #### **Flipping Margins** The Azure Swiftness scroll largely benefits from speculative trading during periods of volatility. Based on historical data: - **Flipping Margins (Typical):** ~5M-15M GP in stable markets (low liquidity) or ~20M-30M GP during update-related hype. - **Recommended Buy Prices:** Under 85M GP. - **Recommended Sell Prices:** ~110M GP for quick turnover or ~140M GP during update-driven demand spikes. To maximize profit, merchants should time acquisitions during post-content hype dips and unload during GP influx periods when collectors return. --- #### **Similar Items Worth Speculating On** - **Abyssal Flare Scroll:** A similarly rare cosmetic ability scroll with a dark aesthetic. Prices historically mirror Azure Swiftness, with value linked to Gothic combat themes. - **Celestial Surge Scroll:** Sought after for its magical visual effects; also experiences volatility tied to Treasure Hunter events. - **Blazing Divination Outfits (2023):** Highly complementary and hot among Divination skilling fans. Pairs with blue/aquatic-themed updates surrounding Azure Swiftness users. Both scrolls and skilling costumes (especially from discontinued Treasure Hunter batches) fare well when purchased in collective bundles, as players often pair items for thematic alignment. --- #### **Seasonal Market Analysis** Certain seasonal patterns drive fluctuation in Azure Swiftness’s price: 1. **Positive Outcomes:** - **Post-Holiday Booms (January-February):** Increased liquidity due to festive gold and bonus XP weekends fuel collectible purchases. - **Skill Reworks (August 2024):** High activity during reworks and level cap expansions fosters new purchases for themed outfits and ability scrolls. 2. **Negative Outcomes:** - **Treasure Hunter Events (April & October):** Re-releases or more "exclusive" cosmetic items can overshadow prior scrolls, leading to temporary price suppression. - **During and Post-Duplication Scandals:** inflation-induced gold surges make cosmetic prices appear less stable, particularly for lower-tier collectors afraid of overpaying. --- #### **Conclusion:** The Azure Swiftness cosmetic scroll remains a symbol of RuneScape's speculative economy, where visuals and exclusivity meet the whims of update cycles and market psychology. Played correctly, its flipping margins, rarity, and complementary aesthetics position it as a solid mid-term investment—ripe for periods of market liquidity and high player engagement.