### **Summary of Ice Barricade Cosmetic Ability Scroll** The Ice Barricade Cosmetic Ability Scroll is a rare tradeable item that unlocks a visually icy effect for the Barricade defensive ability, intended as a stylistic flair over its functional use. Released on *April 20, 2023*, it was most likely introduced as part of a Treasure Hunter promotion or limited-time event. Its purpose is entirely cosmetic, appealing to collectors and PvM enthusiasts who enjoy customizing their abilities. Its release coincided with a surge of similar cosmetics designed to reinvigorate demand for Treasure Hunter-exclusive items. From a rarity perspective, it initially flooded the market due to Treasure Hunter’s nature but became scarce after the promotion ended. Based on price trends, the demand remained high among niche players, particularly amid RuneScape’s fashion-oriented community. ### **Historical Price Movements and Factors Influencing Trends** Analyzing the dataset, several trends and events impacted the scroll’s value: 1. **Initial Release (April 2023):** The scroll debuted at `150M`, likely during a Treasure Hunter promotion. Such events historically boost early demand and inflate prices due to scarcity, but as more items enter circulation, the price often drops sharply. 2. **Post-Promotion Correction (April-May 2023):** The item dropped to a stable range of `35-54M` following the Treasure Hunter event. This decrease reflects typical oversupply after promotional flooding. 3. **Late 2023 Dip (~August):** A further decline to `25-29M` corresponds with events like **Necromancy’s arrival** (08/07/2023), where market attention shifted to combat updates and gear. Additionally, falling rarity or players liquidating for new updates likely contributed. 4. **Early 2024 Spike (~Feb-April):** The price escalated drastically to a peak of `100M`, potentially in response to cosmetic scarcity of older Treasure Hunter items and duping-related economic instability, such as the **Easter Egg Pets duping incident** (April 2024). 5. **Stabilization in Summer 2024:** Recent prices stabilized around `50M` post-max cash exploit (May 2024), likely due to market inflation increasing overall gold circulation. ### **Price Prediction for Ice Barricade Scroll** Given historical trends, this item is tied to demand for *uncommon cosmetics* and responds significantly to broad economic shifts in RuneScape. Over the next few months: 1. With **Treasure Hunter promotions or legacy reintroductions likely in Q4 2024 (holiday season)**, prices could temporarily dip as duplicates re-enter circulation. 2. Seasonal demand spikes during **December-January** should push demand higher due to increased player activity. 3. Long-term, **past similar cosmetic ability scrolls (e.g., Flame Barricade)** historically appreciated over time due to scarcity in circulation and collector demand. Expect gradual gains through 2025, reaching `65-85M` unless a heavy resurgence of supply occurs. ### **Typical Flipping Margins** Ice Barricade Scroll flipping offers excellent profit potential due to its price fluidity. Typical margins observed: - **Quick flipping:** `~5-10M` per trade (buy at under `45M`, sell above `50M`). - **Long-term flipping:** Market shortages or economic instability can yield `15-20M+` profit if bought during dips under `40M` and sold amid spikes (e.g., player campaigns or unfounded supply rumors). - **Tips:** Target offers right after Treasure Hunter dupe accusations or community fear-mongering. Historically, even false rumors temporarily force sell-offs. ### **Advice: Similar Items to Invest In** Coupling investments with comparable cosmetics helps diversify risks/returns. Suggested options: 1. **Flame Barricade Cosmetic Scroll** (released prior): Its historical prices have surged due to limited circulation, offering insight into how Ice Barricade could perform long term. 2. **Smoke Cloud or Sunshine Cosmetics:** These also appeal to ability-fashion enthusiasts, especially if obtained under `30M`. 3. **Weapon-Cosmetic Tokens (2022-2023 Treasure Hunter):** Examples include weapon overrides like Frostwalker's or Lavaforge Weapon Tokens, which rise as older items exit Treasure Hunter. 4. **Magical Bobblehead Pet (Black Partyhat Event):** A unique collectible currently rising sharply but likely to stabilize for mid-term flipping. ### **Seasonal Impact on Prices** - **Positive months for price appreciation:** - **December-January:** Holiday events create higher demand for cosmetics as casual and collector players return. - **March-April:** Post-update hype following new combat/content systems drives niche item interest. - **Late Summer:** Typically, fewer Treasure Hunter releases make past items hold value better. - **Negative months for price stagnation/depreciation:** - **September-October:** Historically, Jagex reintroduces past Treasure Hunter cosmetics or launches similar items. - **Immediate post-update periods:** Major gold dumps (e.g., Necromancy) often cause cosmetics to lag temporarily. By combining **Ice Barricade Scroll**, similar older exclusives, and undervalued ability cosmetics, you can build a portfolio targeting RuneScape collectors who drive this subset’s demand. Patience and market timing with seasonal updates are essential for maximizing profits.