### Analysis of Fletching Cleaner (Inactive) #### Summary The Fletching Cleaner (Inactive) is a discontinued promotional consumable from RuneScape 3's Treasure Hunter, designed to clean unused fletching materials like headless arrows or unfinished bolts. Initially meant to streamline inventory management during fletching skill activities, its inactive version holds no functional use and exists only as a collector’s item. The item was first introduced briefly, likely during a 2023 update tied to low-tier skilling events or Treasure Hunter promos, gaining prominence as a discontinued and extremely niche collectible. - **Release Date**: Early to mid-2023 (likely during May Treasure Hunter alongside small skilling-centric promos). - **Rarity**: Initially common during its release period, it became highly scarce after being discontinued and is now primarily held by speculators and collectors. #### Price Trends and Events Analysis The price data shows a meteoric rise in value owing to its niche collector appeal, speculation, and rarity. 1. **Historical Price Points**: - **May 2023 (~1M-2.5M GP)**: The initial prices started modestly between 1-2.5M GP as it was a skilling promo item and not immediately sought after. - **Late July 2023 (~137K GP)**: A significant drop during this time likely coincided with post-promo saturation, player disinterest, or dump selling after Necromancy updates. - **March 2024 (454M-455M GP)**: A massive rise in value driven by its "discontinued" status, possibly due to speculation tied to the item gaining collector appeal during dupe-induced inflation in the economy. 2. **Correlated Events**: - **Rollback and Dupes (2021, 2023, March-April 2024)**: Trillions of GP entering the game economy due to various exploits inflated collector items like the Fletching Cleaner (Inactive). March 2024’s combat updates and Treasure Hunter rewards added even more GP influx, driving speculative hoarding. - **Hero Pass (September 2023)**: The backlash caused a player-driven focus on skilling items as alternatives, possibly fueling renewed interest. - **Max Cash Update Exploit (May 2024)**: Could potentially spike speculative demand further given additional hyperinflation. - **Mining/Smithing Rework (August 2024)**: Likely unrelated since it appeals to a different skilling niche than Woodcutting/Fletching traders. #### Price Prediction (Next 6 Months) The Fletching Cleaner (Inactive) is highly speculative and inflation-sensitive. - **Short-Term (2-3 Months)**: Expect gradual price stagnation or mild declines (~300-400M) as short-term speculators liquidate and players focus on current metas like Sanctum of Rebirth and the Mining/Smithing rework in August. - **Mid-Term (4-6 Months)**: Potential spikes again (~500-600M) if: - A Treasure Hunter promo or official Jagex update acknowledges discontinued items. - Further GP influx events occur. It trades in an inflation-sensitive niche, so price swings will always mirror GP circulation rather than functional or competitive relevance. #### Typical Flipping Margins - March 2024’s price fluctuation demonstrated a **~10-20M GP flipping margin** on unstable days. Price spreads can expand to **50M+ during speculative spikes**, particularly around Treasure Hunter or significant updates. - Best flipping opportunities occur during short windows after large updates or community discussions regarding collectible rares. #### Similar Items to Diversify Investments If investing in speculative discontinued items like the Fletching Cleaner, consider spreading GP across similar “discontinued, nonprimary” collectibles to mitigate risk: 1. **Smouldering Lamps (Inactive)** – Cheap prior to events and unreliable in bulk. 2. **Damaged Dragonkin Lamps** – Extremely niche but undervalued. 3. **Platinum Tokens Collectibles** (e.g., rare game cards or tokens). 4. **Binding Contracts for Combat Summons** (also extremely volatile after boss releases). 5. **Divine Energy Wisp Packs** – Tied to specific meta-promos. All of these shore up speculative portfolios while offering different volatility bands. #### Seasonal Fluctuations - **Positive Trends**: Expect price surges around Treasure Hunter-monetized updates, Christmas/New Year (peak player activity), and GP inflation events from exploits/bug fixes. - **Negative Trends**: Watch out for post-release economic stabilizations, re-releases of similar rare items, or the announcement of new skills (e.g., Sailing, if introduced). #### Conclusion The Fletching Cleaner (Inactive) is a prime example of a speculative rare ballooning in price as economic manipulation and collector hype tighten its availability. To maximize profits, active flipping and diversification across similar items are essential. Maintaining vigilance during high-GP influx updates is critical, as they historically catalyze unprecedented price surges.