### Crown of the First Necromancer - Summary, Release, and Rarity The **Crown of the First Necromancer** is a rare cosmetic item introduced as part of the promotion surrounding the widely successful release of the **Necromancy skill** on **August 7, 2023**. It was obtainable through Treasure Hunter or related Necromancy-themed promotional events around the time of the skill's launch, making it an item with strong association to one of the most pivotal updates in RuneScape's modern history. The Crown features a unique design with glowing ethereal elements that represent Necromancy's theme of commanding unearthly power. Its exclusivity came from its limited supply during the promotional window, with no known re-releases, but its demand has remained robust due to the strong player engagement in Necromancy since its skill launch. In terms of rarity, it is currently considered a **high-tier cosmetic**, much like discontinued items, because Treasure Hunter exclusives tied to major updates rarely see reintroductions. Its value is tied to both its aesthetic appeal and its symbolic connection to Necromancy—a skill that brought significant gameplay and economy shifts. --- ### Price Analysis and Historical Context #### Price Trends: From the data provided, the item’s price history shows dramatic volatility driven by in-game economic factors: 1. **Initial Spike (August 2023)**: The Crown launched at a staggering **498M GP** (August 11, 2023) during the Necromancy hype phase. Early price overinflation was fueled by initial player demand and promotion-linked scarcity. 2. **Downtrend (September–October 2023)**: Prices fell to around **140M–162M GP** as the immediate hype cooled post-skill release. This aligns with the community settling into the Necromancy meta and the Hero Pass backlash. 3. **Recovery Phase (Late 2023 – Early 2024)**: Renewed interest from ongoing combat updates and cosmetic collectors briefly stabilized the price to around **157M–170M GP** in late 2023 and early 2024. 4. **Extended Decline (Mid-2024)**: By mid-2024, the Crown experienced its sharpest declines, hitting lows of **64M GP (October 2024)**, due to several contributing factors: - **Exploit Inflation**: Severe GP inflation due to max cash exploits (May 2024) flooded the economy. - **Sanctum of Rebirth (July 2024)**: This update shifted focus to high-level PvM, overshadowing the Necromancy hype and placing greater emphasis on functionally rewarding content. 5. **Recent Rebound (November–December 2024)**: Speculative buying and renewed wealth from exploits increased the Crown's price to **69.6M GP (late Nov)** and **84M GP** in December 2024. --- #### Key Insights: - **Necromancy's Legacy**: The item’s intrinsic link to Necromancy secures long-term demand, but most early investors aimed to liquidate during the post-launch spike. - **Economic Instability**: Major updates and GP dupe scandals (e.g., April and May 2024) played significant roles in price declines, amplifying supply-side pressure from players looking to dump cosmetics for cash. --- ### Price Prediction (Next Few Months): Considering historical trends, future updates, and seasonal behaviors: 1. **January–March 2025**: Prices are expected to hover in the **80M–100M GP** range, driven by: - Stable demand from collectors. - Upcoming holiday events (e.g., Christmas/New Year promotions) increasing disposable GP. 2. **April–June 2025**: Risk of another **downtrend** to **60M–75M GP**, owing to: - Attention shifting to new potential Treasure Hunter promotions or skill-related cosmetics. - Economic corrections post-holiday inflation. --- ### Flipping Margins: For merchanting: - **Typical Margin**: ~5%–15% profit in short-term flips. - **Safe Flipping Range**: Buy at **72M–75M**, sell at **80M–84M** during stabilizing weeks. Larger price spikes come with higher risk due to market corrections. --- ### Similar Items to Invest In: To diversify in conjunction with the Crown, focus on items tied to other limited-release promotions or PvM themes: - **Golden Partyhat**: A limited-player cosmetic with strong long-term inflation potential. - **Necromancer's Staff Override (if released)**: Any other Necromancy promotion cosmetics should mirror the Crown's performance due to their shared theme. - **Christmas Scythe**: Seasonal cosmetics often follow similar demand spikes post-holiday. --- ### Seasonal Effects & Advice: 1. **Positive Seasons for Price Growth**: - **December–January**: Increased player activity from holidays inflates cosmetic prices. - **Summer Events (July–August)**: Updates tied to major skills or Treasure Hunter promotions create indirect growth. 2. **Negative Seasons**: - **April–June**: Typically a slower economic period between seasonal milestones, alongside risks from GP exploit corrections or cash-sink promotions. --- ### Final Thoughts: The **Crown of the First Necromancer** exemplifies the importance of tying investment to long-term player demand and economic stability. While currently undervalued due to inflation, it stands to appreciate when the market stabilizes due to its historical context and exclusive nature. Flip cautiously during volatile periods, and consider holding for longer-term growth tied to future Necromancy updates or its eventual "collectors-only" status.