### **Item Overview: Robe Bottom of the First Necromancer** #### **Summary** The Robe Bottom of the First Necromancer is a high-tier Necromancy skill-related armor piece introduced during the launch of the **Necromancy skill update** on **August 7, 2023**. Representing part of the best-in-slot setup for Necromancers, the item appeals not just to PvM players but also acts as a status symbol in the high-value economy. Its rarity is derived from being an ultra-rare boss drop from **Necromancy bosses** introduced in that update, particularly the **Ritual Arena** or those unlocked through endgame Necromancy mechanics. #### **Release Context and Overall Rarity** Historically, the introduction of Necromancy flooded the market with new items, temporarily spiking supply. Over time, the item’s rarity stabilized due to slower boss kill rates as players moved beyond the skill release hype. The Robe Bottom remains one of the most desirable pieces due to its combination of offensive and defensive utility, and by late 2023, its production had slowed. As such, its rarity continues to increase relative to demand. --- ### **Price Analysis (Trends and Update Influence)** #### **Key Price Movements** 1. **Initial Launch Hype and Speculation (August 2023):** The price peaked at **385M** shortly after release. This was driven by immense demand from players rapidly leveling Necromancy and high competition for best-in-slot equipment. Supply, while initially steady, couldn't keep pace. 2. **First Dip (September 2023):** By **September 7**, the price fell to about **192M**, largely due to broader player-base backlash against the **Hero Pass release** and market uncertainty after Jagex's acquisition by the Carlyle Group on **September 7, 2023**, which caused widespread GP liquidity shifts in the market. 3. **Moderate Recovery (October 2023 - February 2024):** By late **October 2023**, the price recovered to **301M** before dipping again to **141.9M** in March post-**combat update (March 2024)**, when the meta was shaken, putting some pressure on demand for Necromancy gear. 4. **Dips from Gold Exploits (Mid-2024):** The **Max Cash exploit** in **May 2024** injected trillions of GP into the economy, harming market confidence. The subsequent **Sanctum of Rebirth release (July 2024)** introduced competing loot, which siphoned demand away, bringing prices to around **160M** in **September 2024**. 5. **Recent Price Surge (November - December 2024):** Recent price spikes back to **260-254.5M** (December 2024) can be attributed to stability following the **GIM bank bug dupe (November 2024)** and stronger interest in Necromancy with PvM updates. --- #### **Price Prediction (Next 6 Months)** Based on historical trends and economic data: 1. **Short-Term (Q1 2025):** The Robe Bottom of the First Necromancer will likely trend between **265M-290M** due to reduced item supply during late December’s holiday lull. However, by February as players unlock new Necromancy content or alternatives, expect a slight dip to **230M-250M**. 2. **Mid-Term (Q2 2025):** Expect significant volatility aligned with potential new updates, particularly surrounding high-end PvM or economy-wide gold sink mechanisms. If no major competing content is introduced, prices may stabilize above **280M+** as it solidifies value as a Necromancy staple. Key warning: If Jagex adds more **Treasure Hunter gold injections** or introduces alternatives via rebalances, prices could drop to **150M-180M**. --- ### **Typical Flipping Margins** 1. **Current Market:** Over the last 3 months, flipping margins average **5-10M** per trade, especially when buying during off-peak hours (weekdays, mid-day UTC timezone) and selling over weekends when PvM activity spikes. 2. **Opportunistic Flipping:** Look for volatility during **weekly patch days** (Mondays/Tuesdays), when price discrepancies surge due to player speculation. Margins could exceed **20M/unit** during these periods. --- ### **Complementary Investments** Investors should consider items closely tied to Necromancy or items benefiting from meta shifts: 1. **Similar Items to Buy:** - **Robe Top of the First Necromancer**: Complements the Robe Bottom and mirrors its rarity/demand trends. - **Deathspeaker Staff (or other Necromancy weapons)**: High synergy with the robe set, especially after content updates favoring Necromancy DPS builds. - **Abyssal Scourge**: Prices for niche PvM items rise alongside Necromancy-category demand. 2. **Diversification Focus:** - Consider **Treasure Hunter rare tradeable cosmetics** during off-seasons (low investment -> high passive appeal later). - **Black Partyhat**: Correlated with market liquidity changes that ripple out to PvM gear prices. --- ### **Seasonal Price Influences** 1. **Positive Seasons:** - **Late December to January:** Strong price activity due to holiday GP injections and increased playtime. - **March-April:** Early spring patches historically stabilize item supply/demand dynamics. 2. **Negative Seasons:** - **Mid-Summer (July-August):** Necromancy hype annualized, typically slowing demand during summer lull unless major patches hit. - **Autumn:** October-November typically sees new introductions/scripts that reduce item reliance. These insights, when applied methodically, should allow shrewd manipulation of both short-term trades and long-term holds on this iconic item.