### Summary of the Robe Top of the First Necromancer The Robe Top of the First Necromancer is a high-tier Necromancy-related rare item in RuneScape 3 introduced as part of the **Necromancy skill launch (08/07/2023)**. It's a highly desired cosmetic with limited availability due to its drop mechanics from Necromancy-related content, particularly higher-difficulty encounters or treasure loot systems tied to Necromancy. This item is symbolic of the new era RuneScape entered with the release of the Necromancy skill—the first combat skill addition in over a decade—marking it as both a gameplay and collectible milestone. Its rarity is driven by low drop chances combined with growing demand due to aesthetics, skill utility, and collectible value. It has consistently drawn attention from both investors and players, reflecting the success of Necromancy's introduction. ### Price Analysis and Trends Price fluctuations over time align closely with notable game events and systemic economic factors. A timeline of its recent pricing and analysis reveals the following trends: 1. **Initial Surge (August 2023):** Upon its introduction alongside Necromancy (08/07/2023), the item's price began extremely high, spiking to **705M GP (08/11/2023)**, driven by speculative hype. Prices dipped as the initial "FOMO" and overinvestment wave subsided. This followed typical behavior of high-tier cosmetics shortly after their release. 2. **Gradual Decline (September-October 2023):** Prices stabilized and settled between **230M-283M GP**, though briefly spiking to **329M GP (08/31/2023)** following Hero Pass backlash (09/05/2023). This is likely due to hoarders predicting reduced player interest in other rewards and re-focusing investments into premium cosmetics, such as Necromancy items, which gained perception as safer long-term investments. 3. **Late-2023 Volatility:** Prices dipped and rose between **232M-295M GP**, exacerbated by market disruptions such as the **Black Partyhat release (12/01/2023)**, which drew liquidity away from the mid-tier rare market temporarily. However, with no new Necromancy content during this period, demand stagnated slightly. 4. **2024 Trends:** Through early to mid-2024, we observe sharper volatility: - The **combat rework (03/04/2024)** introduced stronger Necromancy synergies, briefly spiking prices. - Subsequent bugs (e.g., **Easter dupes** in April) and the **Max Cash exploit (05/15/2024)** flooded the economy with gold, inflating the item's price disproportionately in June-August 2024. - Late 2024 saw gradual declines due to increased Treasure Hunter focus and dupe backlashes (e.g., **11/01/2024 Banking bug**). ### Current Price and Prediction As of **12/17/2024**, the robe top sits at **247.7M GP**, a marginal recovery from the year’s earlier lows. Given trends, there are two key scenarios to consider: - **Bullish Case (300-330M GP):** If fresh Necromancy content—perhaps the long-speculated Second Necromancer boss—is released, demand for Necromancy cosmetics will spike once again, driving speculative investment. - **Bearish Case (180-210M GP):** Continued focus on Treasure Hunter GP rewards or “fresh-start” items from 2025 could devalue existing rares, especially mid-tier Necromancy gear, pushing prices down. **Price Prediction over the Next 3-4 Months:** - January-February 2025: Estimated price range **225M-255M GP** assuming general economic stability and no new Necromancy updates. - New Necromancy release in Q1 2025: Rally to **290M-330M GP**. ### Typical Flipping Margins Currently, the robe top presents a flipping margin of **5-10M GP** in highly active periods. This is noticeably better than most cosmetic rares but less volatile than major partyhats or discontinued treasures. Short-term flipping during major holidays or post-update releases (e.g., Treasure Hunter-focused weeks or boss reworks) will provide increased margins, typically **10-15M GP**. ### Advice on Similar Items If you’re diversifying or trading within the Necromancy or cosmetic rare niche, consider these alternatives: 1. **Necromancer's Staff:** Part of the same set, this could match trends in parallel with the robe top, though it has a smaller market cap. 2. **Black Partyhat:** While expensive, its recent introduction ensures continuous scarcity, likely generating massive gains post-2024. 3. **Blood-Dyed Items or Barrows-dyed Weapons:** Historically, dyes serve as safe bets during economic instability, spiking after Treasure Hunter events flood the GP supply. ### Seasonal Buying/Selling Insight - **Positive Seasons (Buy):** Early Q1 and late Q3 typically see cosmetic rare items rise. Players’ renewed goals at the start of each year and major update teasers (usually Q3) result in speculative buying. - **Negative Seasons (Sell):** Avoid holding these items through mid-Q2 and end-of-year Treasure Hunter events. Large Treasure Hunter gold injections often drive short-term selling pressure. Invest strategically around Jagex’s marketing cycles and hype-focused updates for optimal returns. The Robe Top of the First Necromancer holds solid long-term potential, but timing around future Necromancy updates will heavily dictate its trajectory.