### **Item Summary: Boulder Pet Token** The **Boulder Pet token** is a tradeable cosmetic pet unlock in RuneScape 3, praised for its novelty as a bulky and amusingly adorable rock-like companion. It was initially introduced via **Treasure Hunter**, RuneScape's real-money transfer (RMT)-adjacent lootbox system, as part of a promotional event (likely tied to mining- or stone-themed content). This item appeals heavily to collectors and cosmetic enthusiasts, creating sustained demand due to prestige. #### **Release Date and Demand Curve Insights** Its approximate release is tied to 2023 post-Necromancy additions (potentially **August 2023**, based on data). Its **price volatility** immediately after launch—crashing from 399M to 225M (mid-August 2023), recovering above 1B shortly after—indicates limited initial supply followed by Treasure Hunter over-saturation and a gradual stabilization of its collector appeal. #### **Rarity and Demand Dynamics** The Boulder Pet token is uncommon but not ultra-rare compared to other Treasure Hunter rares, which makes it more accessible but also subject to **high speculative demand spikes**. Its rarity is bolstered by generally low odds of acquisition unless purchased outright or obtained during promotions. Since it’s strictly cosmetic, demand hinges almost entirely on player-driven trends. --- ### **Price History Insights and Analysis** Below is a breakdown of notable trends in token price history: 1. **Initial Sub-Market Dip (Mid-August 2023)** - Prices were initially **399M (Aug 11)** but crashed rapidly to **225M (Aug 14)** during Treasure Hunter release. This aligns with immediate RMT-driven over-supply as players monetized early drops for GP liquidity. - Recovery to **600M to 1.2B GP (Aug 18 - Aug 29)** matches diminishing Treasure Hunter saturation, reflecting mid-tier rarity trading stabilization. 2. **Post-August Rises (Necromancy Impact)** - **Necromancy skills release (Aug 7, 2023)** drew droves of players back into RuneScape, creating new speculative markets in all categories. On **August 23**, values peaked at **1.6B GP**, as supply dwindled relative to heavy demand. - The token ballooned past **2.9B GP by September 2024**, indicating a collector-driven scarcity market. Players likely bet on long-term rarity exceeding Treasure Hunter rotations. 3. **Price Spikes Correlated with Rare Economic Events** - A massive price inflation post-August coincides with shifts from **Hero Pass backlash (September 2023)**, players returning wallets post-Necromancy, and a sentiment-driven hoard-and-hold mentality. - **September 2024 sees exponential growth (2.9B+),** potentially driven by weaker GP value due to the **Max Cash exploit (May 2024)**. --- ### **Price Prediction Through Q1 2025** Based on current trends and historical volatility of similar items (e.g., **Crabbe pet token, Gorilla pet token**): 1. **Short-Term (Next 3 months)** - Anticipate minor dips due to **market stabilizations post-October 2024 Grand Partyhat hype**; price could hover around **2.4B–2.7B GP** as liquidity redistributes. Buy orders may find success just under **2.6B GP**. 2. **Long-Term (2024 Q1–Q2)** - If Jagex avoids freshly rerotating Boulder tokens (unlikely, historically happens 12–18 months after release), they’ll inflate to **3.2B–3.5B+ GP.** This rarity appreciation mirrors rare promo pets unaffected by power creep or feature obsolescence. --- ### **Flipping Margins** 1. **Typical Margins** - The Boulder Pet token shows historically **3–9% net margins** short-term due to its high GP denomination. Flipping between cycles of speculative bursts and stable retracements (e.g., 2.75B buy, 2.9B sell) can yield up to **100M–150M per token flip** with patience. 2. **Best Times to Flip** - Wait for launches of **major events (e.g., holidays like Christmas Treasure Hunter)** or **patch cycles introducing gold-drain content**, where cosmetics flourish. Flipping ahead of seasonal withdrawals post-Easter inventory moves is ideal. --- ### **Advice for Alternative Items** 1. **Items to Invest Alongside Boulder Pet** - **Crabbe Pet Token**: Shares similar collectible appeal (+2.1B GP anticipated late 2024). - **Necroplasmic Cosmetic Overrides**: Emerging necromancy-themed collectibles are still under long-term attention. - **Partyhat Shards**: With lucrative flip potential in December (predicting large valuation spikes pre-partyhat gift unboxing). 2. **Seasonal Predictions for Success/Failure** - **Positive Seasons for Rare Tokens** - **Winter (December–February)**: Festive trends by RuneScape history (e.g., promo-heavy Treasure Hunter). Players sell-off resources to buy GP. - **Negative Seasons** - **Spring (March–May)**: GP sink events force liquidation of less hyped cosmetic items like pets. --- ### **Summary of Key Events Creating Volatility** - **GP Inflation Events**: Post-dupes or **Treasure Hunter GP promotions** undermine value over time. - **Future Combat Updates (2024)** risk overshadowing cosmetics in favor of power-creep items. - Demand rebounds with superior Treasure Hunter exclusives or massive game population boosts.