### **Gown of Subjugation Analysis** #### **Summary** The Gown of Subjugation is a tier 70 mage power armor top dropped by K'ril Tsutsaroth in GWD1 (God Wars Dungeon 1). Known for its affordability and niche use in mid-level mage setups, it matches well with other Subjugation items, offering a balance between defense and magic offense. Released on **October 4, 2011**, alongside the God Wars Dungeon minions update, it has gradually been overshadowed by higher-tier armor but remains relevant in the market due to its accessibility and aesthetic appeal. Its overall rarity is moderate, as GWD1 bosses are well-farmed, but its drop rate (~1/128 from K'ril) keeps it valuable, especially during periods of player influx or new mid-level content releases. #### **Historical Rarity and Price Trends** The item's price trajectory has been notably volatile, influenced by both in-game updates and broader economic trends. Peaks and dips in its price have often corresponded to economic inflations, new items competing with the set, and gold sink mechanisms by Jagex. #### **Recent Pricing Data** From your data: - **Price (June 23, 2024):** 5,873,000 GP - Historical dip on **April 2, 2024** (3,297,717 GP) likely tied to the March combat update and influx of wealth from late-March/early-April exploits. - Spikes observed in **August/September 2023** reaching over **20M GP**, coinciding with the Necromancy launch and Hero Pass backlash, suggesting broader economic instability attracted investors/speculators. - Subsequent decline in **December 2023** (6-8M GP) following the Black Partyhat release and stabilized player sentiment. - Another sharp increase and subsequent dip post-**Easter 2024** event, driven by dupe-induced economic inflation. #### **Current Rarity and Economic State** With mid-range mage equipment demand remaining stable, the Gown’s volatility stems from external market forces rather than intrinsic desirability. Post-GWD1 power creep has hurt its demand as a pure combat item, but its use as affordable aesthetic armor or in Ironman mode keeps it relevant. High supply through persistent K'ril farming caps any sustainable price booms. --- ### **Price Prediction (Next 3-6 Months)** 1. **Short-Term Increase:** Demand may temporarily spike during the **Sanctum of Rebirth** release or the upcoming **Mining and Smithing rework (August 2024)**, as reworks often draw returning players who need tier 70-90 gear. 2. **Mild Post-Spike Decline:** As market speculation wanes and Treasure Hunter GP floods continue from the May Treasure Hunter boost and bond price hikes, expect downward pressure. 3. **Projection:** - **July-August 2024:** 6.8M-8.5M GP (speculative surge). - **November 2024:** Stabilizing at ~4.2M-5.5M GP unless further economic instability arises. --- ### **Insights on Price Movements** - **Spikes from Necromancy (August 2023):** Favorable updating of combat systems increased demand for tier-scaled upgrades, breaking 10M and surging to 20M temporarily. - **Hero Pass Backlash (Sept 2023):** Speculative investment due to fears of widespread player wealth reduction created another temporary spike. - **Post-Duping Era (April 2024):** Prices decreased heavily as significant dupes destabilized the economy, forcing downturns across mid-tier items. These events underscore the item's sensitivity to general market health rather than intrinsic desirability. --- ### **Flipping Margins** Gown of Subjugation’s relatively high mid-tier trade volume makes it a profitable flipping item in volatile markets: - **Current Margin Potential:** - Low volatility: ~3-5% (e.g., buying at 5.5M and selling at 5.7M). - High volatility: Margins can reach 7-12% during speculative spikes (e.g., buying at 5.0M during panics, selling at 6.5M during spikes). - **Trade Strategy:** Time purchases during post-update dip phases (e.g., late April 2024) and sell during pre-update or speculative price booms (e.g., late July 2024). --- ### **Similar Items to Invest In** - **Virtus Robe Top** (GWD2): Often tracks similar price behavior to Subjugation yet offers higher-tier appeal. Margins can be slightly better due to its broader desirability. - **Tier 80 Options:** **Superior Zuriel's Top** or **Ganodermic** pieces—all popular for PvM mid-tier setups. - **Aesthetic Collectibles:** Consider investing in **Armadyl Gear** or **Bandos-Chestpieces**, as similar economic inflations impact their trade volumes and appeal for flipping. --- ### **Best Seasons for Positive/Negative Price Shifts** 1. **Potential for Price Increases:** - Pre-major PvM updates (e.g., July’s Sanctum of Rebirth). - During returning player influx tied to game reworks (e.g., Mining/Smithing or potential combat rebalance updates). 2. **Price Declines:** - Post-Treasure Hunter-related gold injections (e.g., May/June 2024 GP additions). - Economy stabilization phases after large updates and dupe corrections. --- ### **Conclusion** The Gown of Subjugation remains a low-risk but moderately profitable speculative investment. While not intended for long-term holding due to its high supply-cap nature, it offers solid flipping potential during RuneScape’s cyclical update-driven volatility. Prices will likely hover in the 4-9M range over the next six months, presenting opportunities for shrewd investors to exploit short-term market imbalances. Pair investments with complementary mid-tier mage armor or combat sets for diversified risk during speculative surges.