### **Half Full Wine Jug Analysis** #### **Item Overview** The Half Full Wine Jug in RuneScape 3 is one of the rarest discontinued items from the early days of RuneScape Classic (RSC). It resulted from a bug where incomplete wine-making left half a jug of wine in the player's inventory, which could no longer be reproduced after later updates fixed the issue. Its supply was almost exclusively limited to players in RuneScape Classic who carried forward the item into RuneScape 2 and eventually RuneScape 3. Release Date (Bug Origin): Circa 2001-2002 Current Status: Discontinued (No longer obtainable) Rarity: Among the most scarce and elite items, alongside Christmas Crackers and Partyhats due to natural attrition (e.g., banned accounts and oblivious players who discarded it). #### **Historical Price Trends and Influences** The Half Jug of Wine is a textbook example of a speculative commodity affected by market inflation, economic disruptions, and player base changes in RuneScape. Its price history highlights multiple significant turning points: 1. **Pre-2021 Stability**: Early prices reflected slow, steady growth as the item was primarily owned by veteran players who refrained from selling. Pre-2021 prices hovered between 10-20B GP. 2. **2021 Rollback Dupe (January)**: - The rollback dupe overflowed the market with trillions of GP, driving inflation. Rares like the Half Jug climbed as wealthy players sought ultra-limited items unaffected by supply increases. Price spiked to **23.7B GP** by October 2021. 3. **2022 Stagnation and Fresh Start Worlds Introduction (September)**: - Following the Duel Arena removal and Fresh Start Worlds introduction, interest in discontinued items dipped slightly as newer "investment" avenues emerged (Partyhats from FSW shards). Prices dropped modestly to **11-13B GP**. 4. **2023-2024 Volatility Amid Exploits/Updates**: - Major gold-injection incidents (Scrimshaw dupe in 2023, Max Cash exploit in 2024) caused rapid inflation and price surges. For example, Half Jugs rose dramatically in **2024 to 49.4B GP** by November after the Max Cash exploit pushed trillions into circulation. - Conversely, player hacks, luring incidents, and Hero Pass backlash diminished confidence temporarily, causing price dips during mid-2023. 5. **Notable Spikes (Late 2023 - 2024)**: - **Post-Necromancy (August 2023)**: High engagement from major content updates (Necromancy skill, combat reworks) brought collectors into the market, further boosting prices. - **Max Cash Update Exploit (May 2024)**: The highest recorded price spike followed this gold influx, sending Half Jugs soaring to **38B+ GP** within months. --- #### **Price Prediction (Late 2024 - 2025)** The price of Half Full Wine Jugs tends to oscillate sharply depending on gold injection events, player confidence, and speculative trends around new ultra-rare collectible items. Based on current trends, here’s the outlook for 2024-2025: - **Foundation Prediction**: Between **40-53B GP** by Q1 2025. High inflation persists due to recent gold injections (GIM dupes, Treasure Hunter rewards, and Max Cash exploit). - **Key Factors**: - *Positive Drivers*: Limited supply of Half Jugs makes them a haven during inflationary spikes. Continued engagement due to Necromancy updates and potential future skill expansions will maintain collector demand. - *Negative Drivers*: Waves of eco-damaging dupes (e.g., Black Partyhat release post-portal exploits) could temporarily shift focus away from Half Jugs to newer speculative rares. - *Seasonal Trends*: Holiday seasons (December and Easter) generally correlate with price surges as wealthy players purchase for prestige or to impress during social events. --- #### **Flipping Margins** Due to the rarity and low transaction frequency of Half Full Wine Jugs, flipping margins are substantial but require patience and high upfront capital. Typical margins can range from **5-15%**: - **Example**: A purchase at 40B GP can yield ~2B-6B GP profit with patient resales during periods of high demand spike (e.g., close to updates or holidays). **Advice**: Buy low during economic disruptions or game controversies (e.g., post-Hero Pass backlash) when players liquidate investments, and sell during collector-driven hype or holidays. --- #### **Similar Items to Buy** Given the volatility and costliness of Half Jugs of Wine, diversified rare item investments are prudent. Consider these alternatives: 1. **Christmas Crackers**: - Exceptionally rare, high demand for Partyhat creation keeps these highly valued. 2. **Ornamental Golden Partyhats (FSW)**: - Recent introduction with limited supply and growing prestige. 3. **Easter Eggs / Pumpkin(s)**: - Historical consumable rares with proven performance over years. 4. **Black Partyhat**: - While the supply of this new rare is higher, demand is growing as the novelty sets in. It could achieve long-term stability. *Tip*: Look for mounting updates (e.g., combat overhauls or Treasure Hunter rewards) that distribute immediate liquidity for flipping these investments. --- #### **Seasonal Price Effects** - **Positive Seasonality (Price Rising)**: - *Winter Holidays (Dec-Jan)*: High engagement, collector/end-of-year spending. - *Post-major updates*: Post-update hype (e.g., Necromancy expansion drove demand for legacy rare flex items). - **Negative Seasonality (Price Falling)**: - *Post-duplication exploits*: Following exploits, players tend to sell off well-known rares briefly to fund investments in newer rare cosmetics. - *Spring (March/April)*: Often a quieter season with fewer major updates or events. --- The Half Full Wine Jug remains a pinnacle status symbol with high speculative value. For savvy investors, its price momentum presents lucrative opportunities, particularly during RuneScape’s economy-shifting updates.