### Item Overview: Elite Dracolich Vambraces **Release Date**: Elite Dracolich Vambraces were introduced as a rare drop from *high-level Necromancy content* as part of the Necromancy skill update on **August 7, 2023**. These vambraces serve as hybrid armgear tailored for Necromancers, providing both **offense and tankiness**, particularly due to their synergy with Necromancy combat styles. Their effect amplifies certain Necromancy abilities. **Rarity**: The vambraces remain rare and sought after, as they drop from content requiring **maxed levels and high-skill bossing**. Their comparative rarity is compounded by the relatively low player engagement in bossing after Necromancy maxed out, making their supply limited in the Grand Exchange. --- ### Price Analysis and Summary The price trends for Elite Dracolich Vambraces reveal a volatile history influenced by **macro-economic changes in the game**, player adoption of Necromancy, and exploits/dupes. Here’s the timeline distilled from your data: 1. **November 2023 - March 2024**: - The vambraces sold for **200M+ to 398M** during the initial Necromancy hype and price recovery from Red Portal exploits. - Prices spiked sharply (**300M+ on March 4, 2024**) after the RuneScape Combat Update raised player power ceilings. However, Necromancy-focused changes increased demand for competitive gear like the vambraces, especially after their utility in various combat styles was optimized further. 2. **March 2024 - Present**: - After a **400M peak price**, the vambraces rapidly declined due to **duplication bugs and several gold-injection exploits** (Black Partyhat dupe, Easter Pet GP inflation). - Key economic disruptions occurred in **April 2024**, with Treasure Hunter adding 1B GP rewards and the Max Cash cap being exploited by trillions of gold, crushing confidence in high-value trades. This led to a June crash (**148M-136M**). - May through **post-Sanctum of Rebirth (July 2024)** saw further depreciation (**148M -> 128M range**) as Necromancy waned after being maxed by the player base. 3. **Late 2024 Trends**: - Prices rebounded slightly but corrected again during the **November 2024 Group Ironman Bank dupe** fallout (**115M by November 8, 2024**). This was the lowest price in recorded data. --- ### Price Prediction (Next 3-6 Months) Necromancy's declining player engagement, macroeconomic instability, and the entry of possibly better hybrid equipment for future combat metas point toward **continued cautious optimism for the vambraces' price correction but no significant spike.** Expect modest upward movement due to their intrinsic efficiency. #### Short-Term Forecast - **Floor Price**: 100M GP (if another gold dupe or injection occurs). - **Midpoint**: 125M GP. - **Ceiling Price**: 160-180M GP (if Necromancy is retrofitted with additional content or if new bosses incentivize their demand). #### Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive**: - Rebalancing patches to Necromancy combat. - Future bossing metas requiring Necromancy hybrids/utility gear. - **Negative**: - Release of superior hybrid equipment akin to the Vambraces in 2025 High-Level Bossing reworks. - Economic uncertainties (future hacks or dupes). --- ### Flipping Margins #### Current Flipping Strategy - Small buy/sell margins exist due to low supply and modest volume on the Grand Exchange. - **Average Margin**: **2-5%** fluctuation on a daily basis (2M-6M per trade). - **Trade Tactic**: Invest around **high-volume patches (PvM meta refreshes)** or during dips when price corrections force large listings under GE median (~110M buy-ins, ~120M sell-offs). #### Advanced Flip Timing - Buy just **before big patches or player content updates**. - Sell during peak **weekends associated with PvM-focused events** (e.g., during combat improvement Treasure Hunter promos like Smouldering Lamps or Necromancy reset opportunities). --- ### Comparable Items to Invest In If you're focused on **flipping and portfolio diversification**, these comparable items share Necromancy, hybrid adaptability, or PvM niche ties: 1. **Hexhunter Bow**: Recently repriced due to diminishing dungeon usage but undervalued for PvM resurgences in ranged-focused boss metas. Average volatility ~5%. 2. **Inquisitor Staff**: Another Necromancy hybrid PvM staple. Often sees seasonal dips between new promotions and spikes during bossing-focused updates. 3. **Other Necromancy Items**: - **Umbral Chests (Necromancy)**: High volume sales around bonus weekend events. Profitable via short-term deep flipping. --- ### Seasonal Market Trends for Elite Dracolich Vambraces 1. **Positive Price Seasons**: - **December-February**: Playerbase spikes due to holiday events, promotions, and pay-to-win-oriented Treasure Hunter campaigns generally boost Necromancy-related items. - **Post Major Updates**: After player power ceilings are raised (as seen post-August Necromancy rework). 2. **Negative Price Seasons**: - **May-August**: Summer season typically experiences GP deflation from dupes/exploit risks and Treasure Hunter GP flooding (recent examples: Max Cash exploit, GP giveaways). Dupes exacerbate supply/demand dislocation. --- ### Closing Advice Elite Dracolich Vambraces remain a **stable medium-risk, high-reward flipping choice** for PvM investors, especially when trading amidst Necromancy-related patches or game-wide economic events. Factor in both the item’s intrinsic rarity and RuneScape’s wider economic trends before committing capital. To hedge against risk, pair investments with other PvM-focused items like **Hexhunter Bow** or **Scrimshaws**, which tend to absorb market instability when niche gear fluctuates too steeply.